My name is Dan Caves, and after years blogging on-and-off, I've decided to give it another try. It has been a long journey in finding my voice and having something worth saying, but I think I have a fruitful topic: the grand sideshow of human oddities that is human history. We are an odd and dysfunctional species, and we love to prove it to whoever is watching. Sometimes, however, these oddities seem to be well out of our control, so today I would like to open this blog with the anniversary of an improbability.
100 years ago on this date, one of the most improbable coincidences set in motion the war that created the world we live in today.
A Serbian nationalist group called the "Black Hand" knew that the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, would be paraded through the streets of Sarajevo. Deploying along the published parade route, they intended to assassinate him. Bombs were thrown, and bombs were deflected, and although several were killed in the ruckus, the Archduke and his wife escaped with their lives. The failed assassins attempted to kill themselves to avoid capture, but the cyanide was defective and the river too shallow to drown in, and they were taken away.
One of the conspirators, a 19 year old man named Gavrilo Princip, managed to flee the scene undetected. Dejected at how poorly the day went, he made his way to a cafe across town. Better to lay low, maybe grab a bite to eat, and live to fight for Serbia another day.
Meanwhile, the Archduke went to a local magistrate's manor to regroup and lodge a complaint over the nature of his welcome to Sarajevo. It wasn't long before he decided that it would be a good show of solidarity with the Slavs of his empire to go to the hospital to visit the wounded. He and his wife climbed back into their open-topped car and the motorcade went on its way.
No one knew where the Archduke was going, nor the route he would take - this apparently included the driver, because once back in the city the party got a little lost. The driver turned the wrong way down a one-way street, and when he threw it in reverse, the car stalled. It stalled outside of a little cafe.
Right around this time, Gavrilo Princip stepped outside to an astonishing sight. Ten feet away, just below him, stalled in an open-topped car with his entourage busy trying to crank the car back up to get it going again, was his target.
Princip casually walked up and produced a pistol from his pocket. He didn't miss. With a few well-placed shots, one nobody kicked off one of the most devastating and world-changing wars in human history. We are still steadying ourselves from the aftershocks of that war, especially in the Middle East, and probably will be for the rest of our lives.
I would like to thank the podcaster Dan Carlin for reminding me just how incredibly fascinating we all really are. His ability to tell the story of world history, and to analyze modern history in its making, has enriched my life and the lives of many of my friends. His podcast Hardcore History is currently three episodes deep into a series on the First World War - if you've taken the time to read the short version of the Archduke's assassination, perhaps give the Dan Carlin version a try in Blueprint for Armageddon.